Updates: Week Ending September 4, 2026

Three notable trades over the past week. Although August felt like a slower month, being patient and only going for the cleanest setups did pay off.

CHFJPY

The first notable trade was a short position on the CHFJPY pair.

CHFJPY Daily

Price crossed above the 60-period exponential moving average (EMA60) on the daily timeframe in April 2025. Since then, this pair has been in a massive uptrend.

The strength of this uptrend came into question in April 2026 where price first crossed below EMA60. Although there wasn't an immediate trend reversal, I was able to plot two levels that defined a range.

Price crossed the lower range boundary with strength on July 30, 2026. I've been monitoring this pair as price drifted higher back towards the original lower range boundary.

CHFJPY 4-Hour

The 4-hour timeframe showed a clearer counter-trend drift where price slowly traded higher and higher. I plotted an ascending trend line (ATL) as a visual aide to plan my entry.

When price crossed below this ATL, I entered my sell trade with a 4:1 reward-to-risk ratio. Price satisfyingly hit my take profit just over three days later.

NZDJPY

The next trade was on the NZDJPY pair.

NZDJPY Daily

Very similar to the previous pair, a range was identified around April 2026 when price made a clear low.

NZDJPY 4-Hour

This is actually a range, or mean reversion, play. Price held resisted against the upper boundary. I plotted a horizontal trend line that served as my entry criteria. When price crossed below this neckline, I entered.

I targeted 4:1 for my reward-to-risk ratio (R:R) and this trade hit my take profit in just under two days. If you're wondering how I came up with 4 R:R, this is tied to my own Monte Carlo simulation (see this post for reference).

For the CHFJPY and NZDJPY trades, price did go a bit further in my direction after my respective take profits were hit. It was entirely possible that I could have made a little bit more by letting the trades run.

However, that's also something easier said than done in real-time. I would not have known the momentum ended until I saw a further reversal, which would've resulted in returning some profits.

If I do see more potential in future trades, I might experiment with setting 4.5 or 5 R:R.

EURGBP

The final trade I want to highlight was on the EURGBP pair.

EURGBP Daily

This pair has been in a downtrend, especially after price broke a key level at the end of June 2026. My short entry was based on price pulling back and stalling at a lower level. When price started drifting higher, this was my indication to monitor the 4-hour timeframe.

EURGBP 4-Hour

On the 4-hour timeframe, I plotted an ATL to monitor the upside price drift. My entry plan consisted of a sell stop placed just below the ATL.

This trade was uneventful. My sell stop got triggered when price briefly crossed below the ATL and then resumed drifting higher. My stop loss was subsequently hit not too long afterwards.