Updates: Week Ending September 25, 2026

Last week, I followed my plan trading trend momentum on the 1-hour timeframe fairly well. I have a few winners and a couple of losers to highlight. My winners were bigger than my losers, which led to a positive P&L in last week's session.


To recap my trading approach (largely influenced by the Monte Carlo simulations I ran):

  1. Plot key levels on the 1-hour (H1) timeframe to identify pairs that have a clear trend direction (higher-highs or lower-lows)

  2. When price is squeezing against my 15, 30, and 60 exponential moving averages (EMA15, EMA30, and EMA60), the currency pair will be one that I monitor much more closely

  3. When a currency pair is "in play," I will look at the 15-minute (M15) timeframe to determine my entry point

  4. Take profit and stop loss will be set at a ratio of at 2.5:1
AUDJPY

AUDJPY 1-Hour

Let's take a look at the AUDJPY 1-hour timeframe:
  • I established a downtrend on the daily timeframe and noted a potential risk that price was trading between two key daily levels

  • On the H1 timeframe, I plotted a key horizontal level (yellow line) where price retraced and held resisted below a prior low

  • Price was also squeezing against the EMA bands and my sell stop was placed just below the relative low of the 15-minute price range

  • After my sell stop was triggered, price cleanly hit my take profit target

  • Although I could've let this trade run in order to achieve a slightly higher reward-to-risk ratio, I do think it's important to take a more passive set-and-forget approach rather than try to actively manage the trade
GBPJPY

GBPJPY 1-Hour

I observed a nearly identical setup on GBPJPY - downtrend on the daily timeframe along with price squeezing against my EMA band and holding resisted against the H1 level I plotted.

AUDCHF

AUDCHF 1-Hour

Although the H1 setup on AUDCHF was the same as the GBPJPY and AUDJPY trades, there were some differences.

AUDCHF Daily

The daily timeframe indicated a strong uptrend. This was evidenced by how cleanly the EMAs were trending higher without any crossovers.

I think I got pretty lucky that the sell trade on the H1 timeframe worked out because of how over-extended price was on the daily timeframe.

A mental note I will be making for future reference is to double-check the trend strength on the daily timeframe. If price is very over-extended, then it is possible to trade without higher timeframe confluence.

However, I should not be selling on the H1 timeframe when the daily timeframe is indicated price is trying to push higher. In this case, I should wait for the H1 trend to show confluence with the daily.

CADJPY

Although I've been showing winners up until this point, there were a few trades that did not work out. I'll use CADJPY as an example since they exhibited very similar characteristics.

CADJPY 1-Hour

CADJPY's daily trend was actually indicating bearish. When I saw price cross below the EMA band on the H1 timeframe, this indicated confluence with the higher timeframe.

I entered a short trade and got stopped out fairly quickly. Reviewing this trade in hindsight, there were a couple of things I could've done differently:
  • My sell stop could've been more refined by using the 15-minute timeframe to trigger when price momentum pushed past the low after the bearish EMA cross

  • Reduce position size after seeing the choppy price action on the H1 timeframe as this is an indication of liquidity traps

  • Not something that I could've done differently in hindsight, but just keep a positive mindset that some signals might take more than one attempt to work out, which could still be profitable
On the third bulletpoint, a sell trade would've successfully hit take profit if I entered on the downside breakout on September 24th. The selling pressure leading to September 25th's close would've resulted in profit overall.