The week ending July 31st was tough. Price action was very unpredictable, which resulted in several stop losses and manual exits at a loss. From a strategy standpoint, I don't think there were any issues with the trade entries.
In my past two posts, I highlighted my key trade on the EURAUD pair. Unfortunately, the trend momentum died off and price ended up hitting the stop loss that I was trailing. Although I didn't take a net loss on the trades, I also didn't make much either.
Trade Recap
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| EURAUD 4-Hour |
You won't see trades 3 and 4 annotated anymore on the chart above. This is because I manually closed those two trades slightly earlier in order to reduce my overall position size.
The next two pairs that I'll highlight exemplify following my strategy but still not having the signal play out in my favor. Of course, these two pairs weren't the only trades I placed, only two that I think are notable to highlight.
The first is a sell trade that I placed on the NZDUSD pair.
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| NZDUSD Daily |
The daily timeframe shows a bearish bias. Price attempted to trade above the EMA band but quickly made a bearish cross. In addition, price also held resisted below a key horizontal level.
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| NZDUSD 4-Hour |
Dropping down to the 4-hour timeframe, price made a bearish EMA bounce. This was my indication to enter a sell trade.
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NZDUSD 4-Hour
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Due to FOMC, price made a very strong bullish move and I decided to manually exit this trade. I made this decision because I felt it was better to re-enter if price made some sort of bearish signal rather than praying that price will somehow continue to the downside.
Likewise, the AUDUSD sell trade that I took resulted in a very similar, if not identical, price action.
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| AUDUSD Daily |
The daily timeframe was showing a technical timeframe, which was indicated by a bearish EMA cross (price crossed below the EMA bands).
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| AUDUSD 4-Hour |
Dropping down to the 4-hour timeframe, I entered a very small sell trade in order to get exposure. I kept my size small because price crossed below the EMA band but did not make a bearish bounce.
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| AUDUSD 4-Hour |
After a day or so, price did pull back and make a bearish EMA bounce. This was when I scaled in and entered another sell trade with 1% risk.
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| AUDUSD 4-Hour |
Unfortunately, FOMC knocked me out and my stop loss ended up hitting for both trades.
I entered three more trades near the end of the past week and I am currently holding these trades through the weekend. Here's a rundown of the three trades.
Trades held through the weekend:
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GBPNZD Daily
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It might seem crazy that I took this sell trade given the price action on the daily chart. Observing price relative to the EMA band, I established a weak bearish sentiment. The one thing going for me was that price made a bearish EMA bounce.
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| GBPNZD 4-Hour |
On the 4-hour timeframe, price made a bearish EMA bounce and consolidated in a wedge pattern. I placed a sell stop, which got triggered after price broke below the wedge consolidation.
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| EURNZD Daily |
The next trade that I took was on the EURNZD trade. On this daily timeframe, I have two key horizontal levels plotted, which indicated caution of a long-term range.
From a technical standpoint of price's position against the EMA band, I established a bearish sentiment nevertheless.
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| EURNZD 4-Hour |
On the 4-hour timeframe, price made a bearish EMA cross and then broke through a key H4 level where we previously observed demand. Based on these two factors, I re-affirmed my decision with a sell trade.
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| SGDCAD Daily |
On the SGDCAD currency pair, I observed a very strong uptrend. Since mid-May, price has been trending above the EMA band.
More recently, price pulled back and held supported above a key horizontal level, which signaled continued buying strength while offering an entry opportunity with this EMA squeeze.
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| SGDCAD 4-Hour |
On the 4-hour timeframe, I placed a buy stop just above a key price level where there was strong selling pressure. If price breaks above this key level, it's a safe indication that there isn't continued selling.
At next week's open, I anticipate seeing some price gaps. Price may temporarily trade counter to my trend direction; however, I do think the broader trend should resume.
