Lower Timeframe Problems
Focusing on the 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes over the past few weeks have been uneventful. In addition to the lower summer volatility, trend momentum signals also have not played out for me. As a result, I scratched quite a few trades as well as having a few hit my stop loss.
On the daily timeframe, price broke above the key level in July 2026. After drifting higher, it spiked down sharply and formed two bullish bars over the next two consecutive days.
Here's an example on the EURAUD pair.
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| EURAUD 4-Hour |
I sold this pair when price crossed below the 60-period exponential moving average (EMA60). This indicated confluence with the daily timeframe (where price was also below EMA60).
However, the momentum died off rather quickly. The chart told a different story on the daily timeframe.
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| EURAUD Daily |
Since price traded below EMA60 for the majority of the time, this indicated relatively stronger selling pressure. However, plotting some key levels on the daily timeframe made it clearer that the daily momentum was weakening.
Given how much screen time I'm spending to monitor the 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes, I've reverted to a less is more approach.
Rather than checking the bar-by-bar formation every single hour, I think the daily timeframe is better suited for me. It allows me to dedicate one longer evening session to review how the daily bar closed at the end of each New York session.
To plan my trades with buy and sell stops, I use the 4-hour timeframe to get a little bit more price action data. As a result, there are a few trades I'm holding through the weekend (and will likely hold for the next few weeks if the trend momentum pans out).
If we re-visit the EURAUD pair from a daily price action lens, here's how I think I would've traded this pair.
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| EURAUD Daily |
I've annotated this daily chart to show the key levels I would've monitored as well as the point in time when I would actually start planning my entry on the 4-hour timeframe.
If I exited the trade after price breached above the supply block, it would've still resulted in a 1,000 pips move with an initial stop loss set for 140 pips. This trade would've been held for 96 days, requiring me to check this chart once a day after the daily bar has closed.
This approach, in my opinion, ensures I capture the major moves while spending less of my awaking hours monitoring the charts and letting emotions get in the way with pre-mature entries and exits.
With this being said, there are a few pairs that I'm currently holding through the weekend and anticipate holding for the next few weeks ahead (if the trend plays out).
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| EURUSD Weekly |
EURUSD is in a technical uptrend (price above EMA60) on the weekly timeframe. Price briefly traded below the EMA60 and then crossed back above it. It's also holding supported on higher levels.
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| EURUSD Daily |
The trend is less defined on the daily timeframe. Price chopped around the EMA since late 2025 so I am more conscious that my stop loss adjustment will need to be more agile now that this trade is in a small profit.
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| GBPCAD Daily |
GBPCAD is the next pair that caught my attention. Price and EMA are squeezing, which is an indication for me to monitor for an explosive directional move. I'm currently maintaining an upside bias.
My buy stop was triggered when price crossed above a descending trend line that I had plotted on the 4-hour timeframe. Currently, volatility remains low, which is a bit of a concern.
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| GBPCAD Weekly |
The weekly timeframe is a bit concerning to me. Although price has been in a very strong uptrend with almost no dips below EMA60, price is currently over-extended and drifting lower.
If price crosses below my key level next week, that will be an indication to exit the trade and cut the loss.
CADCHF was another pair that caught my attention last week.
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| CADCHF Daily |
My buy stop, which has now been triggered, is based on price crossing above a key level. Price did attempt to cross above this key level once at the end of July and again in early August. There really isn't any guarantee that the breakout this time around will hold.
However, the frequency at which price is breaching above this key level and the fact that price is failing to push new lows indicates that it's unlikely we'll see further downside.
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| CADCHF Weekly |
The weekly timeframe also hints at the upside potential. Although price has been trailing below EMA60 very cleanly since July 2022, price crossed and closed above the EMA for the past two weeks.
I admit it's too early to classify this trend change, I do think it's worth monitoring this pair closely.
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| EURNZD Daily |
Interestingly, my broker's pricing data doesn't go back that far. While my analysis did not factor in the weekly timeframe, several observations on the daily timeframe informed my bearish sentiment.
Although there isn't a clear trend, price recently made a very weak bounce after testing this level. In addition, price also closed below this level at the end of the week.
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| EURNZD 4-Hour |
My entry was based on the 4-hour timeframe. I plotted an ascending trend line to track when the counter-trend move ends. When price crossed below this ascending trend line, it shows confluence with my bearish sentiment and I entered a sell trade accordingly.
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| NZDCHF Weekly |
The last pair that I have a position in is NZDCHF. On the weekly timeframe, we can observe a strong downtrend as price has been consistently trading below the EMA60.
In May 2024, price briefly traded above EMA60 for three weeks. Right now, price is making another attempt to trade above the EMA60. Since the new low made in November 2025, price has not been able to push lower, which serves as the first indication of a trend reversal.
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| NZDCHF Daily |
My entry is based on the premise that the selloff on fundamental news was short-lived. As long as price is holding above this key level, we could potentially see a major trend reversal.