Updates: Week Ending March 27, 2026

March was pure chaos. Crude oil prices reached highs that we haven't seen since 2022. FX market volatility is strangely unpredictable (at least, for me). As a result, I've had to really be conscious to "slow down" my trading and be careful over the past couple of weeks. This is a recap of a few notable trades and how well they aligned with my strategy.

For those curious of crude oil price highs:

US Crude: Weekly

I took one trade on GBPJPY but closed it not too long later. Here's the price action breakdown:

GBPJPY: Daily

Observations on the daily (D1) timeframe:
  • 20-period exponential moving average (EMA20) continues to trend above the 60-period exponential moving average (EMA60), which indicates a good trend strength
  • Price is hovering around this EMA band so I'm looking for the next explosive move up, especially to capitalize on momentum
GBPJPY: 4-Hour (H4)

Observations on the 4-hour (H4) timeframe:
  • Price breaks above the descending trend line (DTL), which is a helpful indicator that we might resume the up-trend
  • Unfortunately, price continued to range so it did not make sense to remain hopeful by holding this trade when the momentum isn't there
After reviewing this trade, I don't think there were any issues with me taking it. There was definitely strong potential of asymmetric reward vs. risk. It simply didn't pan, especially due a lot of current uncertainties.

I took another trade involving the Japanese yen.

EURJPY: Daily

Key observations on the D1 timeframe:
  • EMA20 remains above EMA60, indicating a stable trend
  • Price is hovering around the band between both EMA's, which is a good indication as trend momentum will be confirmed once price moves further away
EURJPY: 4-Hour (H4)

Key observations on the H4 timeframe:
  • Price crossed above the descending trend line (DTL), which shows confluence with the higher timeframe trend direction
  • After my entry, price ranged a bit longer and fizzled out, which resulted in my closing the trade around break even 
After reviewing this trade as well, I don't think there were any issues either. Momentum simply wasn't there, but there was asymmetric reward-to-risk opportunity.

However, the 1-hour (H1) timeframe indicates that more than one attempt could've been made to enter this trade. The second attempt was visible on Friday, just before the market close.

EURJPY 1-Hour (H1)

In this screenshot, you can see that price broke above another DTL just before Friday's close. If price is able to test and hold above this level on Sunday's open, that might hint at momentum to the upside for the rest of the week.

Let's look forward to a trade that I did enter just before Friday's close and actively holding through the weekend. This trade occurred on the EURUSD pair.

EURUSD Daily

The EURUSD pair had a key turning point last week:
  • EMA20 crossed below EMA60, signaling a potential trend change
  • In addition, price retraced up to the EMA band and resisted, further indicating that there may be systematic selling of the euro
EURUSD 1-Hour (H1)

The H1 timeframe is also showing confluence:
  • EMA20 crossed below EMA60 and price respected this crossover
  • Price also crossed below the ascending trend line (ATL) and held below it
Unless geopolitical events cause everything to go haywire, I think there is strong potential for this pair to continue trending lower.