Updates: Week Ending November 21, 2025

This post will cover the past two weeks. While I did not get a chance to draft last week’s post, I did have a couple of notable trades. The past week was a bit rougher since the breakout signals did not yield desired results.

Let’s start in ascending order with the oldest trade. This was on the EURCHF pair.

EURCHF

The daily timeframe was showing a standard structure. Price was in a weak downtrend, which was based on two observations.

The first observation was that EMA20 was lower than EMA60. The second was several overlapping dojis formed after a series of bullish candlesticks.

On the H1 timeframe, I plotted an ascending trend line because price was trending higher. My trade entry rule was simple. I’ll enter a short position once price crossed below this trend line.

This trade was successful as I captured an explosive move. However, I closed my position before the 5 p.m. rollover, which limited my profit potential as there was another wave of selling pressure that I did not capitalize on.

NZDUSD

I took another win on the NZDUSD pair. It followed a very similar price structure on both the daily and H1 timeframes.

Unlike with the EURCHF pair, the NZDUSD pair was in a cleaner downtrend on the daily timeframe. However, it was important for me to keep in mind that smaller pullbacks can still happen.

On the H1 timeframe, I took a similar approach and plotted an ascending trend line. The trade plan was simple. I entered short when price crossed below the trend line.

Fortunately, my exit was well-timed. I exited at the bottom, but it’s something I still need to figure out how to do this consistently. I need to optimize an exit strategy that can be applied consistently.

NZDCHF

My trade on the NZDCHF did not work out successfully. That being said, it’s important to not think of a loss as a failure.

On the daily timeframe, price was in a clean downtrend structure. I plotted my key levels and expected continued momentum to the downside. Unfortunately, this was not the case.

Over on the H1 timeframe, I plotted an ascending trend line. When price crossed below this trend line, I entered my short trade. Unfortunately, this trade hit my stop loss shortly after.

There are a few things I can learn from this:

• My sell stop placement should have been further lower so that I’m targeting an entry area where buying volume is minimal
• Unlike the other pairs, the H1 EMAs weren’t very clean in the sense that they kept crossing over one another, which should’ve been an indication that H1 trend strength was weak
• While I still think entering this short trade wasn’t a mistake, I should’ve reduced size given the overall clarity of the H1 price action