Updates: Week Ending September 19, 2025

Focusing on one trade at a time continues to pay off. This was observable over the past week, where I was able to control my FOMO by not taking on additional trades if I'm already in one.

Let's go in depth with one key trade on USDCHF.

USDCHF

I had one observation on the daily timeframe:

• After price initially crossed below a horizontal trend line (HTL), the following two days painted bullish bars; however, price failed to close significantly above the level, indicating downside momentum to me
• In addition, the EMA20 is below EMA60, a further indication that this is a downtrend

On the hourly timeframe, I saw an opportunity to swing into this trade:

• EMA20 consistently remained below EMA60
• Price cleanly broke below the first ascending trend line (ATL)
• As price is crossing the second ATL, I entered short

Note that I use a 1:1 reward-to-risk ratio when showing the trade levels. This is one component of my testing where I see how feasible it is to target 0.5x ATR for my stop loss and take profit.

If momentum consistently dies after hitting the 0.5x ATR mark, it's a good indication that I should set a take profit rather than trying to trail trades.

Here's the result of this trade.

USDCHF H1

As you can see here, this trade absolutely exploded. There are two possible scenarios here.

Scenario 1: Use a 0.5x ATR Take Profit

This would be the safe approach. It would yield a much higher win rate. The downside is that I will miss bigger moves when they really take off.

This approach also requires a lot of churn. It requires playing a numbers game by taking the same set up over and over again in order to "win" a fixed amount.

However, it also does mean I can size up a lot faster because I'm going for the easy money trade. I'm not managing multi-session holding periods or having to constantly monitor the trade.

Scenario 2: Trail Momentum

The second possible scenario is I trail this trade, either by manually moving my stop loss or using a trailing stop loss.

My personal preference is to use a trailing stop loss if scenario 2 is the way to go. It systematizes the trade management process by taking emotions out of it. I don't fear losing unrealized gains. Rather, it's simply focusing on following the rule as closely as I can.

The downside of trailing a stop loss, whether manually or systematically, is that a lot of trades might end up breaking even. It's very possible for price to move 0.5x ATR and then revert. After all, this is an average calculation.

I haven't quite figured out how I want to proceed. In the meantime, the forward testing continues where I monitor and collect data on the likelihood of price moving beyond the 0.5x ATR target.