Updates: Week Ending May 30, 2025

 It’s been another “dead” week in the FX market. While I did take several trades, none of them made significant moves. I mostly closed them out around break-even, incurring a minor loss. Mentally, it’s been challenging.

When market volatility doesn’t align with my strategy, self-doubt and the urge to re-strategize creep in. Changing a strategy based on a few unsuccessful trades is a risky move. I constantly remind myself to focus on large numbers.


If my strategy fails, it will be evident in my trade log after 50 or 100 trades. That being said, I won’t be doing a trade recap this week. Nearing the end of this week, my alerts went off, indicating that price broke key level on several pairs. I’ll focus on the pairs-in-play for the upcoming week instead.

Before we jump into the pairs-in-play, there’s a podcast I’d like to highlight.


Podcast Review: Words of Rizdom


My podcast roster is quite limited. I primarily follow Chat With Traders and Humbled Trader, especially after several other channels I follow have become inactive. While these two channels have been releasing podcast interviews, they are coming out at a slower pace (or perhaps I’ve become more impatient).


As a result, I’ve been browsing YouTube to find other channels that focus on similar podcast/long-form interviews. I tend to be quite selective in the channels I follow.


If a channel uses clickbaity titles like “trader turns $500 into $1 million,” I immediately dismiss it. I don’t necessarily think it’s a scam or fake, but I don’t support the hyper-focus on the monetary value as the headline.


Recently, I did stumble upon one channel - Words of Rizdom by Riz Iqbal. He claims it’s “the world’s #1 trading podcast.” Personally, I’m not a fan of this self-issued statement, as I believe Chat With Traders, for example, is larger and more established. But then again, opinions vary, and your mileage may differ.


Aside from the self-proclaimed “biggest trading podcast,” there’s a lot of good content. Here’s why I like it:

  • Featuring industry veterans like Peter Brandt, Jack Schwager, Lance Breitstein, and many more
  • Conversational approach where topics are free-flowing and less structured on the typical questions

Pairs-in-Play


Nearing Friday’s close, several pairs breached key levels I had marked up. My alerts went off so they’ll be a point of focus for the week ahead.


AUDCAD Daily


This is a trend trade for me. The overall trend direction is down, or that’s my bias at least. There are a couple of key observations here:

  • Since 2025, this pair has been drifting higher, barely making higher highs and higher lows. Momentum did not pick up.
  • Early April, this pair sold off quite dramatically and then recovered in late April.
  • Through the entire month of May, this pair resumed its higher high and higher low drift.

To me, this is an indication that buying pressure isn’t there. The trendline and support level breach nearing the end-of-week close is an indication to me that buyers are failing to keep price supported.


I do anticipate a pullback at the start of next week’s open. If that occurs, then monitor the H1 and H4 intraday timeframes to see if I can plot a range and trade that breakout.


Note: the signal on the AUDCAD is replicable on the AUDCHF pair as well, which is also on my PIP watchlist for the week ahead.


EURCHF Daily


I am keeping an eye on this wedge breakout, but I don’t anticipate placing a trade. Structurally speaking, the trend direction is not clear. It’s really just a breakout pattern that has potential for making a strong move due to the fact that it’s been consolidating since April.


I dare say most of these pairs have been in a consolidation since April, after the last tariff announcement.


GBPCAD Daily


This pair has caught my interest because of a potential counter-trend move. Structurally, this pair has been in an uptrend. Not the cleanest uptrend, but price is making higher highs.


Rather than breaching above the previous high in late March, price crossed below a upward trendline. To me, this signals potential for further downside in the weeks ahead as traders look to unload their long position.


GBPCHF Daily


Similar to the GBPCAD pair, GBPCHF also breached a trendline, indicating potential for momentum to the downside. There’s a few key observations on this chart. From September 2024 till March 2025, this pair has been in a horizontal range.


Price attempted to break higher in March but failed to sustain. April’s tariff (I think) announcement caused a sharp reaction and price has been drifting higher ever since.


The recent trendline break is significant because price failed to breach it’s prior high. In other words, this is a double-top formation indicating that buying strength has weakened.


USDCAD Daily


This pair captures my impatience last week. I took a short position when the price faked out of a major level. That was stupid of me, and it highlights the importance of patience.


Earlier in the week, price breached below the support level. However, it failed to sustain and drifted higher for three days straight. 


On Thursday (second candle from the right), the first red candle appeared. This signaled that bullish strength was weakening. On Friday, price sold off again and closed below the support level.


If this pair holds below this key level, then I will be looking for short opportunities by monitoring the H1 and H4 intraday charts. If the past week has taught me anything, it’s important to remain patient and not doubt your strategy simply because the market is dead. It’s also important to look at what the daily candles are telling you as well.