Updates: Week Ending May 16, 2025

It’s no surprise that another week has passed and the word “tariff” has failed to escape the news. Perhaps the main update is that the US and China announced, on May 12th, a 90-day suspension and reduction of the “retaliatory” tariffs that reached 145% at one point. If you’re having trouble keeping up with the tariff news, you’re not the only one.

A quick Google search will yield results showing various tariff trackers like - Trump 2.0 tariff tracker by ReedSmith and Trump Tariff Tracker by Atlantic Council.

Let’s pivot over to what price told us over the past week.

Recap:

SPX500 Daily

Probably no one has a shorter memory than the market, or that’s the indication last week at least. The prior weeks of tariff threats, trade wars, and global economic de-stabilization seem all but forgotten as we saw two indications of trend change in the S&P 500 last week.

In late-April, the index crossed above the downward trendline, indicating that there’s further upside potential. Nearing last week’s close, the EMA20 crossed above the EMA60, another signal that I look for to determine trend direction.

On the other hand, FX volatility remained a bit more unpredictable. I have yet to observe any strong trends form.

SGDCAD Daily

One of the trades that (kind of) worked out last week was on the SGDCAD pair. This pair was in an uptrend until April 1st, where the direction change indication occurred when price crossed below my trendline.

Around May 9th, the EMA20 crossed above the EMA60, which was an uptrend classification for me. I plotted a horizontal level to serve as my entry decision point, which will be clearer on the 1-hour timeframe below.

SGDCAD Hourly

The pink box outlines the intraday range that I identified. My trading strategy involves monitoring for price breaking out of an intraday range in the direction of the daily trend.

I identified a breakout to the upside and then entered long. Since I was facing a bit of a losing streak in the prior weeks, I didn’t stick to my usual take profit and stop loss configuration. I decided to let this trade breathe.

Since the daily ATR was 69.2, I decided to target a take profit of 120 pips with a stop loss of 60 pips configured. Momentum did not pick up, so I ended up manually closing the trade with a small profit.

If you’re wondering why I used 120 pips as my take profit, it ties into this post. Using 0.5x ATR increases the probability of your take profit being hit with minimal holding time. This is an efficient way to scale by putting on bigger size.

However, using a 2x ATR or wider take profit can be beneficial during periods of strong trends. When there’s systematic buying, holding onto a position for longer is possible. It’s not my preferred route because it’s harder to scale size, but it is one option.

For the weeks ahead, I will need to continue to be strict with my trade entries and only enter the highest quality signals. I will stick with my legacy strategy of setting my take profit at 0.5x ATR and scaling into additional positions if the trend persists.

Pairs-in-Play:

For the week ahead, there are a few pairs I’m eyeing. The CHF pairs are currently in a pullback or counter-trend pattern right now. If the downtrend resumes, I see potential in capitalizing on the momentum.

CADCHF Daily

As you can see in this daily chart, the EMA20 is below the EMA60. Structurally and systematically, this pair is identified to be in a downtrend.

Since April 22nd, this pair has been in a pullback move, drifting slightly higher each day. If price crosses below this trendline, this would be the first indication that the main downtrend has resumed.

This pattern is also visible on the other CHF pairs as well: AUDCHF, EURCHF, GBPCHF, and USDCHF.

GBPNZD Daily

GBPNZD is another pair that I’m focusing on. Based on the EMA20 and EMA60, this pair is in an uptrend. A rather chaotic uptrend.

As of Friday’s close, price is showing indications of wanting to break higher. It seems traders took a pretty big long position on Thursday and then partially exited on Friday, which was indicated by the pullback.

If buying volume resumes in the upcoming week, it’s a good indication that I can start looking at the H4 and H1 intraday timeframes to plan a long entry.

GBPCAD Daily

Finally, GBPCAD is showing a similar price action. Instead of a horizontal level, I’m eyeing whether or not price crosses above the downward trendline.

The EMA20 is above the EMA60 as well, which indicates that we are in an uptrend. The fact that we cannot see clear higher highs and higher lows indicates that this is not a clean trend.

Once price crosses above the trendline, I will pay more attention to the H4 and H1 timeframes to plan my entries.