Optimized Trade, Died Fast

Short post to highlight a recent trade that I took. I really liked this trade because it was so optimized that I didn't care if it didn't play out to its potential extent.

GBPNZD 1-Day

Right off the bat, two significant points on the daily time frame:
  1. After a massive runup since November 8, 2021, price topped out at 2.053. Why? In my annotation, price spent five days struggling to break to a new high. By day 3, actually, I had already plotted my lower boundary and began monitoring with a downside bias.

  2. This is an indication that price is threatening to break lower. It teased the 2.03635 lower boundary, which prompted me to monitor the lower time frames. Let's hop over to a lower TF.
GBPNZD 1-Hour

The hourly time frame gets a little messy with this overlapping position plot. Here's a point by point breakdown.
  • The range that I plotted on my daily chart has been re-plotted on my H1 chart with solid lines for clarity. Anticipating a price breach below the 2.03388 level, I took a pre-emptive 1% short position.

  • I then set a sell stop to scale into another 2% short position once the lower breakout occurs. This stop got triggered overnight while I was asleep. Great, it worked as intended.

  • My target was set to 1.99945, which is based on the next level observed on the daily chart.

  • After the drop, momentum died down so I adjusted my stop loss accordingly. I was patient and did not panic close just because price made a slight uptick. I patiently waited and monitored to see if there will be further continuation to the downside. This did not occur so I got stopped out. Locked in a profit instead of returning all of my gains.
Looking back at this trade or this set of trades, my decision methodology was sound. In fact, it was pretty fucking solid. While the outcome did not lead to an explosive move downward, my plan set me up for a nice payoff and I managed the trade accordingly only to get out when there was a clear indication that momentum was going against me.