I consider this week a win. I haven't had any thoughts about sizing up. In fact, I stayed within the risk limits and gained a bit confidence in trusting my setups. After taking on a couple of losers, I experienced a series of explosive moves off of the setups I recognized.
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| GBPJPY 4-Hour |
This is a Level-Hold setup that I recognized over on this pair. Price is ranging and made a strong reaction off of the support. Price then drifted lower to test this support level but failed to breach lower. As such, the probability of downside is rather minimal.
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| USDCAD 1-Hour |
This was another range play, which basically is in-line with my level-hold setup. Price hit the resistance and then held. The longer upper tail is a signal of price exhaustion as price traded higher but failed to hold. Unfortunately, price didn't hit my target. But I was able to get out at a price where the selloff slowed.
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| EURCAD 4-Hour |
Different setup but CAD is also involved. There's a fakeout play on EURCAD where price traded above this level and then sold sharply below it. I shorted when I saw a drift term back up to this resistance level, which worked out perfectly as this was a sign of exhaustion. Price just couldn't hold above the level.
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| CADJPY 4-Hour |
Unfortunately, I didn't capture the full move. I don't necessarily think this was problematic since I was targeting the upper boundary of this range. Although this pair is in an uptrend, there wasn't any clear indication that price would invalidate to the upside. It's probabilistically safer to target the upper boundary.
After reviewing these four trades, each setup was clean and well timed. I'd say the overall execution quality of these trades were pretty on point. One problem, however, is that my exposure was pretty concentrated in the Canadian dollar and Japanese yen. I could've afforded to be more stringent and only focus on the signals I deemed cleanest. EURCAD and GBPJPY probably would've been the two that I would execute.
