Trusting Positive Expectancy

I'm still in the process of developing my long-run positive expectancy, but knowing just the basic stats can be quite the game changer. This post will touch upon a subject that I haven't really talked about lately.

I recently passed Step 2 of the Topstep funded account program. Finally, am I right? I've ranted about this before and definitely struggled trading futures. However, I've made some progress such as switching over to the Micros Combine. This offers me greater flexibility with the holding period. This is beneficial as there are less rules I have to worry about breaking. It's also better for risk management as it allows me to absorb a larger drawdown tick-wise.

The reason I'm making this post is mostly about a recovery shortly after I got my funded account. After getting my funded account, which is technically the "Pro" rather than "Fully Funded," I experienced a drawdown of $250 as most of the trades went against me. Rather than trying to size up and make it all back in a following trade, I kept my position size small and continue traded the optimal signals.

This allowed me to recover my account back to even with a few trades that had great R-multiples. What makes them "great" is that they do generate positive expectancy. The past two days have really helped me be confident in my stats. However, it's important to note that these are short-run stats so they are prone to massive deviations. I can only develop the long-run expectancy with time.

Knowing this, it definitely provides a bit more confidence that I can scale up my position size once I hit each account balance milestone. Not much to touch on in this post. The stats across the past two days have been listed below for future reference. Let's see if I can improve them from here.

March 16, 2020:

• Win Rate: 42.86%
• Expectancy: $33.07

March 17, 2020:

• Win Rate: 66.67%
• Expectancy: $9.44

One thing to keep in mind is that the expectancy is based on one MNQ contract. I'm starting small and then scaling up.