Trading On Tilt?
After a rough trading month in January, I admittedly have been a bit more reckless in February. The whipsaws in the FX market persisted in the following month. In my equity graph, I was hovering around even until this week.
With the fear of missing out creeping in, I took some less optimal setups and that cost me. To expand on this, there are two key points:
- No, I didn't trade recklessly. I did not force any trades. I simply saw good plays, but I executed them poorly. Below will be a trade review which requires me to further optimize my entry criteria.
- The fear of missing out is mostly seeing gains in other asset classes. It's crazy to see how equities are in a uptrend while currencies are chaotically spiking in spectacular fashion. I guess this is one of the cons of not trading asymmetric price movements. However, I do plan on sticking this out.
Moving one of the trades that I took, the EURAUD chart is attached below.
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| EURAUD 4-Hour |
1.569 was the key level that price broke below. After holding below this level, we're seeing selling pressure accumulate. After the initial down-move away from this level, price held steady slowly drifted higher. In this case, we're not seeing volume pushing the price to the upside.
My entry was sub-optimal as I picked a point where price there was a slightly higher upper tail. Not only that, my stop loss placement was also rather arbitrary. If we hopped over to a lower time frame, there was no "history" indicating the presence of selling pressure. Breaking this down into a few key components below.
Entry:
- Not optimized.
- I should've jumped down to a lower time frame to confirm that pull back to the upside has weakened. Once we see this, we can expect a continuation movement to the downside.
- To be honest, this isn't the first time I've arbitrarily placed a limit order on a pullback. I really need to be conscious that the placement of my limit does not necessarily equate to where the counter-move will end. This requires observation.
Management:
- This is one of the trades where I doubled my risk. Rather than risking $100, I put up $200. This isn't necessarily "wrong" as I do believe in increasing the size for structural moves observed on the higher time frames. A wider stop is usually required for these structural moves as the signals are generated on higher time frames.
- Increasing this size was problematic. Specifically, the reason to increase this size was incorrect. Rather than making this a structural play, which would also require a wider stop loss, I decided to increase size due to greed. I wanted this trade to payout and to payout bigger than usual.
Exit:
- I've already covered this so I'll keep this brief. The stop loss placement was super weird. It wasn't at any specific point of control. If I were to treat this as a structural move, my stop loss would've been above the 1.57 level.
Small setback, but I will continue to be patient and only focus on taking the highest quality of trades. In other words, the Wagyu of trades.
