Trade Analysis: Gold

I posted a brief analysis over on TradingView and I'd like to go into more detail as I have now taken the trade. In fact, I took this trading shortly after publishing my viewpoint on TradingView so I'd like to go into more detail.

Trade Details: Gold (XAUUSD)
  • Buy @ 1482.50
  • Stop Loss Set @ 1441.00
  • Close (NA - trade still open)
Trade Analysis:

Gold 1-Hour

Despite being considered a safe haven, gold has sold off over the past few days. Looking at the price action, I believe that there is reason to be bullish on this pair. To keep it concise, here are a few key points that serve as the basis of my decision:

  • Gold is testing and holding up along the hourly support level at 1481~
  • White arrows signal a burst of buying pressure despite this pair trending lower
    • Buying is definitely happening because the lack of offers caused the price to surge up before new sellers came in
    • The fall in price has been slowing down, which signals a lack of strong selling pressure
My entry is based on the 15-minute timeframe, which has been listed below. In my last post, I talked about my weakness in trading the 15-minute timeframe and I don't believe I'm violating any personal rules here. For the trades highlighted in my previous post, I failed to perform multi-timeframe analysis. It makes sense to optimize my entry off of the lower timeframe such as the 15-minute after I have analyzed the market structure found on the higher timeframes.

Gold 15-Minutes
You can see that price broke above the 15-minute level and then stalled. I entered when a rejection bar formed, which is signalled by the longer lower wick. Naturally, I didn't make this post immediately after taking the trade, but you can see that it remains open.

I took my time with it and didn't let the fact that I returned all profits experienced on the 15-minute timeframe deter me from holding gold any longer. I know that I'm making a longer time horizon play so there's no need to be overly concerned with the smaller fluctuations.

Regardless of how this trade plays out, I think I analyzed the entry well. I didn't demonstrate the flaws (listed below) that I've done with other trades.

  1. Use excessive risk - took a 1% risk on this trade
  2. Did not attempt to trade my P&L - I'm looking at the price and market structure to let me know if upside potential is no longer likely
  3. Analyzed this security and my entry using multiple timeframes